Policy Exchange: Surface vs depth
Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 | This post was written by Policy Exchange
The phoney election campaign continued last week. The media seems to have decided that the Tory “wobble” is over, after the launch of some pretty good posters and a warm media welcome for their policy announcement on cooperative public services. With their whole campaign operation now transferred from Norman Shaw South into Milbank as of last week, the Tories are now all set for the vote.
It was a funny sort of “wobble” anyway, as none of the last 24 polls have shown the Conservatives more than 2 points in either direction from 40%. Given that the statistical margin of error on these polls is plus or minus 3%, none of the them have shown a statistically meaningful shift. But little things like that don’t affect the Westminster narrative.
One of the incidents in the “wobble” related to a screw-up by the Tories about a decimal point. They released an otherwise excellent report on how inequality has grown under Labour. The document shows how the gap between rich and poor has grown in not just in income, but in health, education, housing – you name it. However, due to a cock up the document initially claimed that in poorer areas 54% of teenage girls in poor areas got pregnant, rather than the real figure of 5.4%.
This was a bad mistake and caused a big Westminster row. But hang on a minute. The real figure should give us serious pause for thought. More than one in twenty teenagers getting pregnant is really, really high. A larger proportion of teenagers in Britain have children than any other EU county apart from Romania and Bulgaria. The rate is more than double the European average and five times higher than countries like Denmark, Switzerland and the Netherlands.
And teenage pregnancy is very concentrated in poor areas. For example, in leafy Rutland the teen pregnancy rate is 1.4%, while in less leafy Lambeth it has averaged 8.9% in react years. Given the concentration of the problem in poverty hotspots, and the fact that 92% of teenagers who have children are not married, teen pregnancy often kicks off a cycle of intergenerational poverty which can last for many decades. In the long term, this costs the state a fortune – quite apart from the mass misery involved.
Part of the problem is about poverty, and part of it is about culture. Hence Cameron’s continuing criticisms of the premature sexualisation of children. But the bully pulpit alone won’t solve these difficult problems. I don’t believe that we have the policy answers to them yet – although they are soluble. For this reason Policy Exchange’s work in this area will continue to grow.
Meanwhile, we are now seeing all the hoopla of an election campaign: student stunts, bizarre poster spoofs, weird viral web trends (e.g. “Dave Facts”) and – God help us - novelty records (cf.“There’s no-one as Irish as Dave Cameron”).
What we aren’t seeing yet is any discussion of the big issues. It isn’t just the big missing discussion about deprivation and social breakdown. Britain’s media seems generally unable to grapple with the detail of big policy questions, so instead reports on easy-to-grasp personality clashes and Westminster spats.
With such an information-poor public debate, it is sad that James Purnell has decided to step down at the next election. He was not only one of Labour’s better potential leaders, but also one of the few people on the left really able to step back and question their policies. There is far too little thinking in British politics, and there will be even less in the Labour Party without Purnell.
Neil O’Brien is Director of Policy Exchange
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