As the dust barely settles on one of the most extraordinary chapters in British history, we enter yet another remarkable political phase as the leaders of the country’s political parties try to form a stable government against the back drop of an extreme cocktail of economic crisis at home and in Europe. Let us be clear, Labour has lost its mandate to govern and the Conservative party have achieved an enormous advance but the results of the election were unclear and there have been vast regional/national variations.
Britain is on the brink of a possible huge economic crisis, it is at serious risk of losing its coveted triple A credit rating amid fears that the hung parliament will trigger a domestic debt crisis. The markets concern is growing that a weak goverment will not be able to tackle the record budget deficit of £163 billion.
A friend of mine who lives in Paris asked me yesterday ‘what’s to become of the UK?’ It was a poignant question, and I reflected to myself on the tragedy that just as the country’s desparate economic situation cries out for a strong and decisive government, the election has delivered a decisively unclear result .
The media obsess about the possible outcomes: a Tory minority government (backed by some sort of supply and confidence arrangement), a Tory-Liberal coalition, a Lib-Lab minority government propped up by the smaller parties and Uncle Tom Cobley. Clearly for the Conservatives the first two options offer different attractions, the preference of the party might be for a stable Tory-Liberal coalition, but key strategists will be asking at what cost?
Whilst for many of us on the progressive wing of the party, the prospect of a stable coalition with a party to the left of the Conservatives is not one that frightens in – there are many activists who are clamouring for a minority Conservative government. The huge problem of plumping for the option of a minority goverment is that we are living through an unprecedented ecomonic crisis that has to be faced down and we need a strong government that is capable of facing the issues and that can last the course. The so called ‘progressive partnership’ of a Lib-Lab coalision would be anything but, an agreement to do no more than to keep a party out of power that has won the largest number of votes and which the voters clearly see as part of the solution.
Whilst any of the options that are presently being discussed may cause the activists to baulk, the voters have delivered their verdict and in some respects perhaps they are calling for something more than a coalition government? Perhaps, they are calling on members of our political class of every hue to work together to address the critical problems we face.
Lets just turn the clock back to 1931 for a moment as I quote from history:
‘The Wall Street Crash had heralded the global Great Depression and Britain was particularly badly hit. The then Labour government was trying to achieve several different, contradictory objectives: trying to maintain Britain’s economic position by maintaining the pound on the gold standard, balancing the budget, and providing assistance and relief to tackle unemployment.
In 1931 the situation deteriorated and there was much fear that the budget was unbalanced, which was borne out by the independent May Report which triggered a confidence crisis and a run on the pound. The Labour government agreed to make changes in taxation and expenditure in order to balance the budget and restore confidence, but the Cabinet could not agree on the two options available: either introduce tariffs, or make 20% cuts in unemployment benefit. When a final vote was taken, the Cabinet was split 11:9 with a minority – including many political heavyweights – threatening to resign rather than agree. Due to this unworkable split, on 24 August 1931 the government resigned.
The political crisis generated much concern and the leaders of both the Conservative and Liberal parties met with King George V and the Labour Leader, Ramsay MacDonald, at first to discuss support for the measures to be taken, but later to discuss the shape of the next government. On 24 August MacDonald agreed to form a National Government composed of “men from all parties” with the specific aim of balancing the Budget and restoring confidence. The government would then dissolve itself and a general election would be held on party lines. A small Cabinet of just ten Ministers was formed to take emergency decisions, with ministerial posts divided as proportionally as possible between the three parties.’
In some form or other National governments remained in office until 1940.
Whilst we cannot expect HM The Queen (yet!) to personally broker agreement, what is clear is that there is another option for our political class with strong historical precedent. This is not merely some sort of beefed up Tory Government of All Talents but a government that would be formed by agreement with the Leaders of all of our main political parties to govern in the national interest and sail the ship of state through perilous waters for a limited time.
The major drawback of two party coalition governments is that the junior partner (often the third in the election) wields a disproportionate amount of power, holding a gun to the head of the lead party and extraordinary as it may seem, there are many people in the Conservative party who feel that they have much more in common with members of the Labour party than the Liberal Democrats and would have far less fear of a government that included Frank Field as Minister for Welfare Reform, Kate Hoey as Minister for London, Jack Straw as Lord Chancellor and dare I say it, Lord Mandelson as Leader in the Lords.
These are not quite unprecedented times and there is real precedent for a political class agreeing to govern in the national interest for a limited period and tackle fundamental problems. David Cameron clearly has won the right to lead that government and if by next week there is no agreement with the Liberals the case for a National Government should be made and perhaps the political class could prove once and for all that it is capable of sweeping aside narrow, tribal allegiances to govern in the interests of the nation we love.
Marcus is Chairman of Conservative City Future