Hold the front page. The Conservative Party has a problem. I’m not talking about the recent criticism that they are the party of the rich who are out of touch with hard working people. Instead I want to focus on a specific issue that could cause political strategists a long term headache: housing.
Research published this week by Policy Exchange found that the Tory lead among those who own their own house outright is +15%. Among those buying their house through a mortgage it is +9%. Among those renting from a private landlord it is -14% and for those renting from a local authority it is -39%. The average age of someone buying their first property is now 37. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the problem. If more and more people are renting these statistics suggest that the Tories could be in danger of losing a lot of votes.
And it’s not just younger voters the party needs to worry about. One of the greatest worries for older generations is the fear that their children will not be able to get on in life. Home ownership transcends class divides. A place to call home is very important to us Brits. If younger generations are unable to afford to buy a place of their own their parents will increasingly start to ask whether the government is doing all it can to help future generations.
The problem is compounded by the fact that in order to win a majority at the next election, a number of target seats are based in predominantly northern, urban areas. If younger people living in Bolton West, Bradford East and Wakefield are unable to afford a one bedroom flat, let alone a family house, then the statistics suggest they are less likely to vote Conservative.
The question is what can the Prime Minister do to demonstrate that he not only understands the problem but is doing all he can to come up with realistic solutions?
Since the mid-90s house prices have tripled but the number of new homes being built has fallen. This is seriously dysfunctional and is primarily due to the failure of our planning system. We release too little land for new homes so the amount of homes we built in the 2000s was the fewest since the war, and less than half of what we built in the 1960s. We preserve giant fields of wheat or low grade farmland yet only 10% of England is built on. We destroy gardens and build tiny homes, and then complain that this country is too cramped.
In the last couple of years Policy Exchange has argued for a series of changes to accelerate the provision of new housing, from converting derelict office and retail space to allowing new large scale suburbs and new Garden Cities where local people support this.
The construction of thousands of new, good quality homes – especially in northern, urban areas – is good for the Conservatives. Not only would it play a vital and visible role in a growth plan but it would give the Prime Minister a strong message to deliver across the country – that his government is doing all it can to provide homes for hard working people trying to get on in life.
Nick Faith is Director of Communications at Policy Exchange; you can follow him on Twitter @nickfaith82
Related posts:
- The Big Society will be a Trojan horse for Labour unless Conservatives step-up
- The Conservatives must govern for now, not for 2015
- The Conservatives Have Much To Learn From John Howard’s Appeal To Blue Collar Voters
- Making the Conservatives into a movement
- Reforming pensions is not (just) about saving money: it’s about intergenerational fairness
New blogpost: @NickFaith82 on why the Conservatives need to resolve our housing problem http://t.co/8TYsltfE #fb
“ @NickFaith82 on why the Conservatives need to resolve our housing problem http://t.co/7fbuGJLp ” > People who rent don’t like Tories!
I’ve written a short piece for @PlatformTen on why housing could cause the Tories a serious electoral problem http://t.co/wUWOZpGk
RT @nickfaith82 – why housing could cause Tories serious electoral problem http://t.co/NUsLPdZ6 <interesting from PXer, take notice
.@nickfaith82 of @Policy_Exchange says Conservatives need to resolve their #ukhousing problem http://t.co/0Z5G3lxI
RT @matt_leach: RT @nickfaith82 – why housing could cause Tories serious electoral problem http://t.co/NUsLPdZ6 <interesting from PXer, take notice
Why the director of comms of Policy Exchange thinks #ukhousing could be a long-term problem for the Conservatives http://t.co/ifVb5ML6
RT @PlatformTen: New blogpost: @NickFaith82 on why the Conservatives need to resolve our housing problem http://t.co/8TYsltfE #fb
.@policyexchange staffer calls for “1000s of new, good quality homes – especially in northern, urban areas”: http://t.co/2JNvXwbh #ukhousing
New blogpost: Why the Conservatives need to resolve our housing problem http://t.co/xKvRDYBl
RT @PlatformTen New blogpost: Why the Conservatives need to resolve our housing problem http://t.co/0rDT6Y8m
“@NHConsortium: @policyexchange http://t.co/prjhY7VC #ukhousing”>so Tories acknowledge housing crisis only when if affects voting behaviour?
Why the Conservatives need to resolve our housing problem | Platform 10 http://t.co/5hkePeMD
RT @PlatformTen: New blogpost: Why the Conservatives need to resolve our housing problem http://t.co/xKvRDYBl
I agree with much of this but not the suggested cause. As I point out in a recent reply to an article on building cities on my blog, there is currently land available for 1.5million homes on brownfield sites earmarked for development.
And nor is it all about NIMBYs. There are existing permissions for around 225,000 homes housebuilders prefer to sit on.
The problem is the market in housebuilding is uncompetetive, and our system allows permissions to exist forever. Time limit them, and encourage house builders to retain a 40% stake in developments they create to incentivise quality.
RT @Liberal_Tory Why the Conservatives need to resolve our housing problem | Platform 10 http://t.co/FXp5FNH2
More importantly, the banks need to lend in a reasonable and stable manner. NOBODY should ever get more than a 95% mortgage and preferably 90% AND they should have to make some inroads into the capital every year. And they shouldn’t be allowed to remortgage. If they want to add an extension, they take a personal loan repayable over a maximum of 5 years. With those strictures, banks would be much more willing to lend than they are at the moment, as the house prices would be reasonably stable, they would become more affordable over time, and people would stop thinking of their house as a money box and go back to it being a home.
And I wouldn’t be bored rigid at dinner parties by people talking about nothing but house prices
RT @matt_leach: RT @nickfaith82 – why housing could cause Tories serious electoral problem http://t.co/NUsLPdZ6 <interesting from PXer, take notice
RT @matt_leach: RT @nickfaith82 – why housing could cause Tories serious electoral problem http://t.co/NUsLPdZ6 <interesting from PXer, take notice
Good article by Policy Exchange #nickfaith82 Why the Conservatives need to resolve our housing problem | Platform 10 http://t.co/VUNCRI6J
“If more people are renting, statistics suggest Tories in danger of losing a lot of votes” @Policy_Exchange : http://t.co/wsbyBoNb
A compelling argument from @nickfaith82 on why the Conservatives need to resolve our housing problem: http://t.co/eybS5QX0 #ukhousing
RT @Shelter: A compelling argument from @nickfaith82 on why the Conservatives need to resolve our housing problem: http://t.co/eybS5QX0 #ukhousing
Why the Conservatives need to resolve our housing problem | Platform 10 http://t.co/6vQUrEBl
RT @Shelter: A compelling argument from @nickfaith82 on why the Conservatives need to resolve our housing problem: http://t.co/eybS5QX0 #ukhousing