British politics is in a fluid state. Decisions and events in the next five years could fundamentally realign how power is obtained. We could end up in a four party state, where governments are made up from the:
- Conservative right/UKIP party
- Conservative centre/Liberal party
- New Labour/Democrat party
- Labour left/ Green party
Change to the voting system
The first-past the post system encourages the formation of parties that contain philosophies stretching over a wide spectrum. Dennis Skinner and David Miliband join together to fight Bill Cash and Ken Clarke. Controlling the destiny of our country is what they are fighting for. Both the Conservatives and Labour have a lust for power at the heart of their reason for existence, and it is this pursuit of government that is the glue which bound collectivist trade unionists to Blaire’s ‘New Labour’ project, and now binds free market radicals to Cameron’s ‘Big Society’ coalition.
Get rid of the first-past the post system and you may get rid of the rasion d’etre for the main parties being such wide churches.
Existence of a coalition
“The British people do not like coalitions as they want strong governments.” This is the often-repeated assumption you hear from the mouths of those who want to maintain first-past the post. Like all assumptions this statement is hard to prove but British political history is almost exclusively made up of governments who have a single party legislative majority, so it could be true. But what happens if this attitude changes. My reading of election result was that voters got the outcome that the majority considered to be the best option. Labour was on its last legs, a new government was needed, but many did not trust the Tories to govern on their own. If the Coalition is deemed to be a success then the electorate may vote for it again. Some Lib Dems, having had a taste of government, may want to do their best to ensure that they don’t lose the trappings of power.
Right/Left anti-coalition alliance
The beginnings of an unlikely, maybe even unholy, alliance between the Conservative right and the Lib Dem left is being formed. Both these groups are nervous about the amount of influence they may have in the Coalition because their support is not needed to the same extent by their leaders as it was pre-election. Conservative Home’s interesting series on the voice of the right seems to be motivated by trying to carve out a place for itself as the vocal “conscience” of the right. The inference from this series is that Cameron must listen to certain voices, such as David Davis, John Redwood and Daniel Hannan, as they represent the mythical Conservative base.
Simon Hughes, who is very much on the left of his party, is going to use his new platform as deputy leader of the party to provide some sort of Liberal Democrat opposition. Hughes wants to retain ‘short money’, which is reserved for opposition parties, and he wants a higher proportion of Lib Dem back benchers to have a guaranteed chance of quizzing Cameron at Prime Minister’s question time. At the next election the self-styled Tory Right and Lib Dem Left may campaign against the Coalition’s record, and their honourable friends who were a part of it.
If you add into the mix:
- social media’s ability to allow politicians to build their own brand,
- reform to the House of Lords,
- the individualistic nature of our society where people are more likely to join individual pressure groups than political parties, and
- the growth in votes for minor parties in recent elections,
then it’s more difficult to deny that the political establishment is facing its biggest challenge since the 1920s, when Labour’s rise challenged the then status quo.
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I think Britain is long over due a realignment of political parties. At one stage in the Blair era, it was looking likely that we could have had such a change – New Labour/LibDem/Tories-of-a-certain-persuasion forming an SDP-type party, more traditionally left/leftish Labour members joining more liberal LibDems into a lefty alliance type, and the more traditional Tories getting with Norn Iron Unionists and UKIP.
Now I think the time has passed. Labour is in a state of transition, so there could be some kind of movement there….But the actual establishment of new parties? I am not as sure as I was…
It is true that to vote Lib-Dem is to express a desire for a coalition Government, as that is the very best any Lib-Dem voter could expect. However, you have to discount tactical voters, voting to stop either Labour or Tory where the Lib-Dems had little chance. That probably roughly split 50:50 and that suggests only 3.5m actively wanted a coalition. Probably 21m wanted a single party to govern.
So I’m not sure where this idea that the electorate somehow got what it wanted/voted for comes from.
Doktorb – Imagine if in 1997 New Labour would have won, but without an overall majority. Blair was already forging an alliance with the Lib Dems, prepared to be flexible on voting reform and courting left-wing Tories before the election. He would have happily created a coalition, with the purpose of keeping ‘conservative forces’ out of power forever. But the huge majority meant that Labour could go it alone.
John – Many of my non-party supporting friends voted begrudgingly. There was no enthusiasm for giving victory to any party. The polls before the election showed that a coalition government was not an unpopular option.
I have been saying this for well over a year now and along the lines you put forward.
This will accelerate if the Coalition wobbles at the time that the Labour Leadership comes to a head.
I have termed this “party fission”, in that one decay will throw out particles triggering decay elsewhere.
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There is a movement towards centralism by the public. Older voters tend to vote solidly for Labour or the Conservatives based on their ‘class’ when young and when both parties had strong followings. This was largely based on type of occupation back in the 1950′s to 1970. These are a sizable chunk of core membership but numbers are continually reducing as they die off. Younger people are far less likely to feel politically defined as left or right by class or work and therefore have little interest in the old left/right political parties for representing their interests. This must make it more likely that some form of centralist party or coalition gains power in future. The reduction of core membership must make it very difficult for a strongly left or right government to ever gain power.