The Conservatives have inflicted upon Labour their worst defeat ever. Rightly this has left Labour as nothing but idle observers for now; the Lib Dems and Conservatives must now make crucial choices – on power, on policy, and about the direction of the respective parties. The country is watching, and the one thing the electorate will find most infuriating is if either party looks in on itself to fight the battles of the past, rather than facing up to these choices for the future in a grown up and responsible way.
Here are the choices:
On Power:
Conservatives: A stable coalition that will deliver the bulk of our manifesto recognising that our political system must be reformed in a fair and reasonable fashion, or 5 more years out of office whilst Labour re-write the political rule-book to turn these 5 years into 50! The current parliament makes political reform not a choice but a fact; our only choice is whether it is done with our co-operation or against our wishes and our interests. We should recognise that a minority government without Lib Dem support is a non-starter, because why would the Lib Dems give up the certainty of electoral reform under Labour, just to let the Conservatives govern on their own.
Lib Dems: A stable coalition with the Conservatives which gives them real power to deliver on their manifesto, or a multi-coloured cocktail under Labour, with an unworkable majority, where their priorities battle with the demands of minor parties and special interests, as Labour fights to keep itself afloat on each bill. If Lib Dems believe in change, how can they prop up one of the most heavily defeated governments in political history.
On Policy:
Conservatives: Cutting the deficit, lower taxes, improved education, and empowered local communities are vital for our future, and were the bedrock of our 2010 manifesto. We can make common cause with the Lib Dems to deliver them, insisting upon more focus on spending restraint and public service reform, or we can watch a Lib-Lab pact deliver higher business taxes and ‘soak the rich’ measures which will drive investment and talent out of this country, in the guise of cutting the deficit and ‘fairer’ taxes. Even if we concede that a Conservative minority government, without Lib Dem co-operation, is a political possibility the scope of our problems requires a severity of action for which we do not have a mandate, and which would be all too tempting for a disparate but majority opposition to criticise from all angles for a variety of political motives. To think that such a government would survive long, or be popular enough to win a second election outright is madness. Of course, we should insist on our red lines – defence, immigration and the Euro – because public opinion is clear on these issues, and the Lib Dems will struggle to dismiss this fact.
Lib Dems: They can either follow their instincts towards education reform and economic liberalism, travelling a little faster than they would like with the Conservatives; or they can ignore the serious problems this country faces, take a pro-Labour version of electoral reform, but then be punished for the more important policy mistakes of their coalition’s senior partner – which the markets first and the electorate second will reject as they are proved to fail. The Lib Dems must not forget that Labour criticised both the Lib Dems and the Conservatives when we both had the honesty to discuss the public spending cuts required. The aim for lower taxes for those on lower incomes, which we share, is only deliverable with sound economic management, and lower government debt. Given Labour’s track record, and Brown’s own track record on the 10p tax, the Lib Dems should seriously consider not just which party can promise to support this policy, but who can actually deliver the recovery which will make it achievable in reality.
Finally, each party faces its own internal choice: Will it be held back by those who put old-fashioned and narrow party interest first, or will it embrace the clear instruction from the electorate to work together in the national interest?
Conservatives: Will we finally move on from the so called right-wing ideological purity that has cost us power for a generation, to deliver the sound economics, lower taxes, greater opportunity and reformed public services that the people want?
Lib Dems: Will they be strong enough to move on from their sandal-wearing, nuclear disarming, always harping from the sidelines base that will only accept one form of electoral reform, to become a credible party of the future, in government.
Ironically, the party which puts its narrow party interest first will, in fact, be putting itself out of real power for yet another generation.
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