Can Labour Really Deliver On Any Promises They Make To The Liberals?

Fascinating times.

The referendum on AV is the right move and, as I argued yesterday, there is a very strong case that a Lib-Con coalition is, by some distance, preferable to a minority Government.

Labour are still trying to hold on – now, seemingly promising a referendum on STV.  But the Liberal Democrats would do well to remember a few things, a few pieces of reality as it were:

• Putting the Labour and Lib Dem votes together only adds up to 315 seats.  Any Lib/ Lab coalition would be nothing of the kind.  It would be a desperate scramble for Nationalist/ Unionist/ independent votes before any major vote.  This would be bad for economic stability, bad for the country, bad for the Labour Party and probably bad for the country.
• It is highly unlikely that any new Labour leader will be able to get full PR through the Parliamentary Party.  There are a massive number of PR sceptics and downright PR opponents in the Labour Party.  There are plenty of old style Labour MPs who argue that socialism is incompatible with PR.  How on earth do the Lib Dems expect that full PR will get through a Parliamentary vote when a large proportion of the Parliamentary Labour Party are ranged against it and Liberals and Labour together only have 315 seats?
• Such a move would, in the medium term, be devastating for the electoral chances of a Labour/ Liberal/ Nationalist coalition that could surely last no longer than a few months.

I do hope that we end up with a Lib/ Con coalition.  We will soon know.

UPDATE – This blog from Labour MP Tom Harris summarises similar issues.  Well worth a read:

http://www.tomharris.org.uk/2010/05/10/developments-and-observations/

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