What was the most important political event of last week? Was it the volcanic ash sponsored travel chaos? Was it Cleggmania? Was it the Sky News debate? For me the event which will have most impact on Election 2010 was the release of a slew of economic data showing the recovery to be finely balanced.
Inflation rose from 3% in February to 3.4%. The Retail Price Index rose to 4.4%. The consequence of this is that most of us are becoming poorer. The British economy only grew by 0.2%, making it unlikely that there will be many inflation-matching pay rises in the near future. None of this may be as televisually exciting as exploding volcanoes or beautiful Liberals but when it comes to deciding elections I am with Bill Clinton; “It’s the economy stupid”.
Gordon Brown has tried to claim the economic agenda as his own. His tactic has half-worked in the sense that people are unsure whether the Conservatives have the ability to make the correct economic judgements. Brown’s tactic has not worked in convincing most voters that he is our economic saviour. We know who is responsible for this mess, and it’s not just far-away foreign bankers.
At the moment we seem to be heading towards the very un-British state of affairs of having a hung Parliament. The British public are not convinced that Labour or the Conservatives deserve a mandate. The rise in Lib Dem support is – almost certainly – not due to their policies. It is a protest against two parties of government. Nick Clegg won the first debate because he stood to the side and then channelled the anger of everyman against the political elite.
The good news for the Conservatives is that the election is there to be won, but it’s going to take a big performance to seal the deal. This performance may happen on Thursday as the topic of the final TV debate is the economy. Whoever wins the BBC debate will have almost unstoppable momentum going into polling day.
How should the Tories take advantage of this situation? Firstly, the tone needs to be right. No-one ever won a popularity contest by talking about an ‘age of austerity’. The electorate wants solutions that give them hope. Most people I speak to logically understand that some cuts are necessary but emotionally wish this were not the case. Cameron has to convince the undecided that he is an expert pruner. Every act, including cuts, will be done carefully and to ensure that British society emerges stronger.
Secondly, Gordon Brown should be held to account for the mess he has created. Labour is trying to promote the myth that he is a great economic decision-maker who saved us from Credit Crunch meltdown. If the public believed this Labour would be ahead in the polls. The incompetence of his decision-making is there to be exposed. His beliefs, such as that increasing NI tax will get money into the economy rather than take money from it, show that he is not the right person to lead a recovery.
Thirdly, David Cameron needs to offer simple, realistic solutions that will create positive outcomes. He is part of the overwhelming majority of public opinion in stating that improving our economic situation is the Conservatives’ domestic priority. Cameron needs to invest himself in leading the economic recovery by ensuring that people know he will personally be on top of the subject. The Conservatives also need to talk about how the economic collapse hurts the poorest and most vulnerable in our society and how their proposed solutions will help these groups.
Fourthly, the economy needs to be the main focus for the rest of the campaign. I am a great fan of the Conservative manifesto. I agree with Jonty Olliff-Cooper when he says that it makes him mad that the Conservatives are caricatured as having no substance. The Big Society and PBAge ideas are the biggest governing ideas a party has come up with since the 70s and they truly excite me. But we are political geeks. My girlfriend describes me as niche-normal, which is a lovely way of saying abnormal. Its not politicians, and assorted geeks, who pick what elections are about. It is the voters.
When the Tories were well ahead in the polls there was a dangerous assumption that they would win the election. This is no longer the case. The British electorate are there to be won over, as long as we do it on their terms.
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I came back through Germany over the weekend on a German train. We are miles and miles behind them in almost every department you care to mention. Even the trains had people sorting rubbish into recycling bins. The stations and streets were spotless. When one train broke down, we were tansferred at the next station into another one, with only 8 minutes delay (because they keep a few spare trains dotted about for just such an eventuality)
Whoever wins ( and I still say the Conservatives will ) they have not one but several mountains to climb to make the UK worth living in again.
Iv just read your post about your travels. Iv always enjoyed visiting Germany. Good people, good beer, good infrastructure. The different parts of society often work together in resolving conflicts/problems. There needs to be a mindshift in how we operate as a country. Hopefully the Conservatives will win and they will try to implement a new way of doing things.
GDP estimates are already deflated, so you don’t subtract inflation from real GDP. Britian’s income grew by 0.2% AFTER INFLATION, not including inflation.
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