Are we just talking to ourselves?

Since we joined Twitter (which we’re still not very good at, but we’ll get there!), I’ve been able for the first time to look at the lists of people following our followers, and then at theirs and further on down the chain of follows.

Which is all very interesting if a bit random but the concerning thing is this: the same people crop up on every list. Now obviously we’re all political, we’re all interested in the election and every slip and stumble that will be made, but should it worry any of us?

Are Twitter, and Facebook campaigns, and indeed political campaigns only about talking to a very small group of people – most of whom are already decided on who to vote for? Do they reach the people who count – normal voters who, I suspect, have better things to do than keep up with the twists and turns of how Labour nicked the Conservative idea for green homes grants, or proposed then abandoned a compulsory dog register within a week, or even (and I really hate to admit this…) Conservative plans to give them back control over their own lives?

I keep hearing that this is going to be the internet election. I would argue that in fact the TV debates (specifically, the BBC TV debate) will be the biggest change in this election. And further – I would argue that in fact the most influential factor in most people’s vote is going to be how their personal connections (friends, family, colleagues, co-members of non-political groups…) talk about politics and how they will vote.

I had a theory when I worked at CCHQ which never really got off the ground; I called it the cascade of trust, and it basically meant getting information and facts to key people in positions of local influence (so maybe a councillor, but more likely someone in Neighbourhood Watch, or a Sure Start centre, or a church group, or a local charity or local campaign group) and encouraging them to spread their support through their own networks. This is  the key insight of the Obama campaign – we are kind of in a Howard Dean era in the UK at the moment, with the potential starting to be understood, but the execution not really there yet.

Let’s face it – politicians are not universally loved, particularly at the moment.  Most people take in one source of news (if any) and that source will tend to reinforce their point of view. Again, it pains me to say it but most people do not read political blogs or even the policy pages on the parties’ websites. As Oliver Letwin says, although there is a mass of information out there, the best way to keep a Tory policy secret is to publish it on conservatives.com.

Politicians are desperate to get their message out, ideally unfiltered by journalists. And one of the great ways to do that is interviews on normal people’s TV (ie not Question Time – something like… Trevor MacDonald, for example!) or with non-political magazines… Like my interview with David for Company. This isn’t a new phenomenon – but it’s getting more and more urgent because it’s more and more difficult to reach people who are turned off by what they see as politics as usual, carried out by a political class who don’t understand their lives.

So for all the tweets, the pokes, the youtubes and even the mighty ConservativeHome – we’re kind of talking to ourselves when what we need to do is get out and talk to those people who voted for Blair in 1997, and to those who’ve never voted Tory before…

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