The American hard right seems to have worked itself into a frenzy about the prospect about a Palin run for the Presidency in 2012. Even the normally steady Bill Kristol is getting excited at the Weekly Standard blog. Doubtless the crazed voices at Fox News, from Beck to the increasingly delusional Hannity, when not deluding themselves about Obama’s “Socialism”, will be pumping themselves up about this prospect.
Like a large number of PPCs, I’m a self confessed ‘Obamacon’. I have made the progressive Conservative case for Obama here, here and here. His Presidency so far has made an excellent start in sweeping up the economic, social and ‘American global image’ problems left behind from eight years of right wing Republican rule.
Obama’s election, while not a landslide, was convincing enough in once Republican heartlands such as Colorado and Virginia to show that the GOP need to fundamentally re think their electoral strategy if they are to remain an electoral force in the short term.
The demographics of conventional red states have changed (younger, professional, less religious voters are moving in quickly) and the electoral mathematics in those states have changed. The Republicans can no longer rely on extreme social Conservatism in an attempt to shore up the base. Altered electoral mathematics means that the base is no longer big enough to win. The electoral coalition put together by Nixon and Reagan (using, in both cases, fairly underhand tactics) was smashed into pieces by W and can not be put together again.
Talk of a Palin candidacy blithely ignores this fact. Palin would be the ultimate ‘base’ candidate. The ultimate ‘no compromise with modern America’ pick for the GOP. Indeed, let’s not forget that Palin was probably the least suitable candidate for national high office for any Party since Spiro Agnew was jettisoned by Nixon. Don’t forget that exit polls showed that waverers swung hard behind Obama in large part because of Sarah Palin’s perceived unsuitability for high office. The vast majority of voters said that Palin made them less likely to support McCain. The longer the campaign went on the more detrimental Palin was to the McCain campaign.
So, the GOP could ignore all polling evidence and ignore the realities of a changing electoral map. If they do, it would be an emotional spasm. A pick taken in spite of and not because of the facts and all available evidence. If they do, they might well wake up on election morning looking at a map that looks something like this:
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Obama may be sweeping up the image of America, but he may also be laying the foundations for its future disaster. The ” Talk softly and carry a big stick” works extremely well – provided you are willing to use the stick, and Obama shows no sign of being able to do so.
Quite possibly the least coherent and hysterical analysis I have yet read. For someone professing to be a progressive, modern conservative the amount of venom spewed forth here is really quite shocking. I suggest you take a chill pill.
Donal, which elements in particular displease you? Is it the fact that the electoral characteristics of traditionally Republican states has changed? Is it the fact that exit polls showed Palin to have an overwhelmingly negative impact on the McCain campaign? Is it the fact that Palin was not taken seriously by the majority of US political commentators on both left and right? Or is it the fact that you don’t agree that a ‘core vote’ candidate cannot beat Obama?
Frankly, I didn’t spot a single coherent point in your response.
Rather like Bush before her, Palin appears to have a number of key political qualities – namely, she communicates with normal people well; she knows where her support lies; she gets the issues that will tickle her base. She sets herself up as an outsider from the Establishment, and a ‘speak as you find’ hockey mom, both of which seem to be key drivers of her support amongst registered Republicans.
I think she is deeply unsuited for higher office but she could be a potent political force. If Obama maintains his momentum, the next presidential election is going to be about saving face. And that means (as we know to our cost) a core vote strategy – who Palin appears to have connected with incredibly well.
David,
You’re right that Palin was a detriment, rather than an asset, to John McCain’s campaign. Beyond her worrying lack of knowledge on a wide range of issues, her perceived extremism was shown to be off-putting to moderate republicans.
I think that the problem for the GOP is that they’ve bought into a critical analysis that comes from the left. For years the liberal media in the US and abroad have described two of modern Republicanisms most electorally successful presidents – Reagan and Bush – as stupid, extremist and religious fundamentalists. In fact, this misunderstands their success. They were also adept at compromise and astute politicians who were immensely capable at building consensus at home and abroad. Sarah Palin lives up to the liberal/left analysis of what successful Republicans look and sound like but she is little more than a caricature of the much more nuanced personalities that truly succeed.
Note this excellent leader from Monday’s FT:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/622286d8-698c-11de-bc9f-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
Key lines are:
Her rambling statement offered no rationale for this strange decision. The lack of coherent organising logic behind her actions and words has given rise to suspicions that this move could be a gambit to head off fresh scandal. At this point, only one thing is clear; if this was a calculated first move in a run for the presidency in 2012, it was a stunningly bad one.
This latest stunt demonstrates a lack of basic political professionalism and skill, adding support to the notion, first disseminated by Republican officials during the 2008 campaign, that she is an unreliable diva. She will now enter the 2012 campaign season with little more experience that she had prior to the last one.
But the real tragedy for Republicans is not the hobbling of her 2012 campaign, and the potential end of her political career, but the fact that she had been one of the most popular presidential candidates among Republican activists.
She managed this despite not being presidential material; Ms Palin has demonstrated a disturbing comfort in her own ignorance, an unnerving lack of curiosity and a fractious relationship with the truth. And she enjoyed support despite not even being a political asset. The governor weighed upon the Republicans’ 2008 ticket.
Her potential candidacy is only explicable in a party where activists prefer to win internal culture-war battles rather than national elections. Despite the popularity of some of the party’s positions (such as on fiscal policy) it is hard to see how a 2012 candidate will be able to seal the Republican nomination on a platform that might win support outside the party.
One could forgive this if the Republicans were using their time in the wilderness to nurture the intellectual roots of future campaigns, as Barry Goldwater did in his 1964 presidential run. But they are not. This spell out of office is not being invested in ideas. There is no silver lining to the Republicans’ weakness.
And you think Mr Obama is presidential material??!! He is a good-looking man in a suit who likes making speeches but the Democrats seem to be gearing up to saddle Americans for generations to come with absolutely massive debts. In the meantime, he seems to take a curiously hands-off to Congress while vested interests on Capitol Hill do untold damage.