In all the coverage I’ve seen about the Labour leadership this weekend (most of it highlighted on Conservative Home) one name has been conspicuously absent: Tony Blair. You remember. Nice Young Man. Used to run the country.
Let me share with you a theory from a friend of mine who is well connected in the Labour Party. He believes the future of Gordon Brown depends on the former PM. His argument runs like this:
The only way to persuade Gordon to go voluntarily (and privately) is if enough cabinet ministers see him at once and threaten to resign (the Polly Toynbee theory). But getting 10 cabinet ministers to agree to do that – privately – is virtually impossible. Almost certainly, if anyone tried to organise such a coup, they would be found out and the plot would be undone.
So that means one of the big beasts has to move more publically and on their own. Think of Geoffrey Howe’s devastating attack on Margaret Thatcher from the backbenches. But is there anyone in the Labour Cabinet with that authority? The only person would be Jack Straw, who must harbour ambitions on the job himself. He knows that if he wields the fatal blow, he would never get to be leader. Anyone else would be terminating their political career (which rules out Alistair Darling and David Miliband).
But if you introduce Tony Blair to the political chessboard, you can build a completely different scenario.
Blair is a Labour loyalist. He will not want to see the party destroyed by the Conservatives at the next election, and so must be keen for a leadership change. He has the opportunity to intervene and deliver the final – devastating – blow to Gordon’s authority from outside.
He could simply comment on the importance of having a leader who could survive in “this media age” and the job would be done. If he then provided the cover to the first candidate to emerge once pressure became too much for Brown then that candidate could go all the way.
And who would Tony Blair want to see in Number 10? Step forward David Miliband: the real “heir to Blair”.
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I agree about this. The present Cabinet incumbents have all been brought up in the politically correct savemybackside world of non-responsibility, and will never have the guts to confront Brown, even in numbers. But Blair, almost certainly egged on by Cherie, could quite easily make a speech which would finish Brown. Blair may be the highest earning ex PM in history, but I wouldn’t mind betting that Brown will be amongst the lowest. Of course, not having a clue about economics or markets, he missed his trading chance – he could have gone to be boss of the IMF or the World Bank within the last couple of years which would have been the smart move. He is not noted for making the smart move, unfortunately.