Politicshome is an amazing resource for political geeks – there are facts and figures and real-time news feeds and all sorts. The PHI 100 panel is a group of Westminster insiders – MPs, journalists, think tankers and so on – who are daily sent a short survey. The panel’s responses are presented as the informed view of the Westminster Village.
The informed view of the Westminster Village is very often right in its predictions, particularly on questions of internal party politics. Yet on Glasgow East, it was entirely wrong. They predicted first that the SNP would win, then shortly after the beginning of the campaign, right to the end, that Labour would hold on with a much-reduced majority.
We all get things wrong. But the wisdom of crowds, as perceptively pointed out by Matthew Lloyd on politicalbetting yesterday, only holds if the crowd is sufficiently diverse. And the PHI 100 doesn’t have any normal voters on it.
While this doesn’t at first glance seem to be a problem, because there is a panel of 5,000 voters who are tracked over time, it is in fact the greatest flaw in the whole politicshome concept and of politicians generally.
Voters are not (often) political geeks. They gain an overall impression of policies, candidates and events. They rarely take every nuance and detail of anything politicians say. Voters have an extraordinary capacity to surprise insiders. Insiders have an extraordinary capacity to surprise as well – I remember one survey which asked what would be the more resonant image for voters of a particular week for Harriet Harman: her in a flak jacket in her own constituency in broad daylight, or her surprisingly successful first outing at PMQs against William Hague. A horrifyingly large percentage of the panel predicted that it would be the PMQs success. For them, perhaps it was. But for voters, clearly the flak jacket picture was.
And that’s why politicians (and I include those of us who work/have worked for political parties, journalists, think tankers…) around the world are so often held in contempt. They are inward-looking. They don’t sound like they live in the real world.
Two contrasting examples from the Tory party this week: Nicholas Winterton complaining that he had done nothing wrong and there is a plot to oust him. David Cameron standing forlornly outside Tesco after his bike was stolen.
I think (hope) that there is an understanding of this problem of inward-looking political operatives amongst the leadership of the Tory party. There clearly isn’t at the top of the Labour party. And that understanding that politicians have to live in the real world, is the fundamental basis on which the next election will be fought, won and lost.
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