Whatever you do, don’t look at your pension statement (if you have one). Unless you are very lucky, it will make torrid reading. With the FTSE 100 down nearly 700 points in just a few months, oil prices set to climb even further, and house prices stalled, it is terrifying times for your average voter.
The seeming inevitability of a Tory victory seen in recent weeks cannot be divorced from the economic turbulence to hit on Brown’s watch. Certainly the botched election and politicking during the 2007 Conference didn’t help, but when average punters see their savings disappear then any doubts about political leadership disappear. This has cemented feelings about Brown rather than anything else.
Brown might be hoping things turn around economically before 2010 but this is unlikely to improve his poll ratings. Under John Major the economy was well on its way to success when the 1997 election was called; but that wasn’t enough to save the Tories. Voters had taken away their trust in the Conservatives’ ability to manage the economy and they weren’t going to give it back. Labour merely had to look competent, and not mess things up, to keep their popularity.
Does that mean the fight is over? Of course not: nothing can be taken for granted in politics. It does mean, however, that Cameron should start to take his 21% lead out for a spin and explain again and again his vision for the changes needed to Britain.
We saw some of it over the past few weeks – especially the green speech a couple of weeks ago – but I wonder how much of it is getting through to the public. This process is going to have to continue if Cameron is to have a mandate to effect real change once he gets to Number 10.
The fractious relationship with the press comes into play here. The Tories must be very careful about playing to the prejudices of the national newspapers. Sure, they don’t want editorials condemning every speech from the Shadow Cabinet, but they must ensure the papers understand that change is coming.
It is about political space. Unless he marks out that space now, he won’t be able to do anything if he wins the next election. That will take guts and determination, and – just possibly – being seen as unpopular. Clearly he won’t want to jeopordise actually winning, but it might be better to win a majority of 50 seats with the space to make change, than to win a majority of over 100 with nowhere to go.
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Agreed- set the broad strategy now and the tactics will follow