At the end of last year I told a friend that if the Government were still in trouble in mid-2008 then the Tories could begin to feel confident. We were walking through Westminster Hall, beneath the great hammer beam roof, which is a dangerous place to predict the future given how much history has actually happened there.
That was only four months ago, but I thought it might be worthwhile to consider whether the Tory poll lead we see today can last. On the face of it things couldn’t look stronger for David Cameron: Labour is arguing with itself over the 10p tax cut, the murmurings over Gordon Brown’s leadership don’t seem to be going away, and Ken looks like he might lose the London Mayoralty. Indeed, Cameron seems so confident that talk of an aggressive Shadow Cabinet reshuffle is underway.
Now let’s look at it another way. Imagine that Labour backbenchers refuse to publicly humiliate Brown over the 10p tax vote, and that Brown squeezes home with a majority in double figures. Two weeks later Ken Livingstone wins by a whisker and gets to stay in City Hall. Then a set of global economists agree that an injection of liquidity into mortgage market from the Bank of England was just what was needed to ensure Britain’s financial system kept going. They hail Alistair Darling a hero. To cap it all, the Tories are humiliated in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election.
Not too hard to imagine, is it? Brown is back in command of his party, the machine looks like it can still win, and even the economic reputation starts to be repaired.
If there is one lesson of the polls right now it is that they are extremely volatile. There is no guarantee that things will continue to implode and there are many months to go before a General Election. It strikes me the great strategist Brown is lining things up for another assault in 12 months or so. Take those photo-calls with the US Presidential Candidates. That was clever long-term politics. Brown treated them like Presidents while they were still Senators. They may well remember that when they are in the Oval Office and give Brown lots of opportunities to look like a world leader.
There are still structural problems, with stories of paralysis inside the Downing Street machine and economic woes some sort of certainty. The press aren’t interested in any visionary speeches and Labour backbenchers will still be restless. But politics is a long game. Don’t write off Labour just yet.
Related posts:
Dead right – DC and friends actually have to win something AT THE BALLOT BOX before it looks like a proper swing to them. Come on Boris! BE THE CHANGE!!
You’re so right Benet. To be tribally open about it, I’m barely sleeping at the moment over 1 May nerves. It all feels like it’s going well on the doorsteps … but I’m not used to us winning so I don’t have anything to compare the feeling against! I think if we win in London then we can overcome any other setbacks. But the nightmare scenario you set out – we lose London (just), we do badly in the locals and then come 3rd in C&N – it’s not unimaginable.
I’d be amazed if the Tories came third in Crewe and Nantwich. They have had a candidate in place for over a year, who has been quite active in the community. They have pretty much achieved double the LD vote at the last elections too. Plus, the LDs aren’t exaclty flying high in the polls and don’t have a candidate yet. And when you take into account the changes in the constituency itself – it has become a bit more ‘Tory friendly’ – and the personal vote for the late Gwyneth Dunwoody, the Tories might be in for a surpise, of the good kind. Important not to assume anything or get cocky or confident, but it is more realistically winnable than a lot of the recent by-elections we have had to fight.