I didn’t really want to harp on about this again – but today’s Guardian pollmakes my point for me.
The results are CON 37/LAB 31/LD 23. While Labour are down, so are we (and somehow the Lib Dems are up…) Labour have lost people’s trust, but have the Conservatives yet earned it?
I reckon that the ‘sound nicer, boost the same topics as we always did’ (ie what’s been happening for the last few months – we sound more reasonable and we look nicer, but we still mostly talk about tax, immigration and Europe) is good for about half of the increase in numbers that we need – we have got back the softer vote which, while Conservative-inclined, was put off by the image we projected.
But for the other half? They will need a lot more work. And a lot more than the same messages in a better tone. They are the people whose concerns are what are seen as the ‘less traditionally Tory’ ones – liberty, the environment, society etc. And they are the ones who are more likely to be attracted to the Lib Dems.
I’m beginning to bore myself with this argument – but hopefully it’s beginning to sink in somewhere where it matters. We cannot win an election at this level of polls. We need to have a bigger gap and maintain our position in the low forties to do so. And we cannot do that by sitting back and assuming it’s all downhill from here.
No related posts.
I would like to comment on Fiona’s suggestion that we should work on ‘less traditionally Tory’ ones – liberty, the environment, society etc. Of the latter, Iain Duncan-Smith’s work at the Centre for Social Justice is peerless. Of the former two, I think David Cameron has achieved the right balance in his leadership stance, and while previous criticism that few details of policy are revealed, the timing rather than the actual policy detail is crucial. I also believe it is eminently sensible that when formulating Conservative policies, account should be taken of the unfolding changes and public expectations as Labour’s flaws start to bite irreversibly. Afterall, we would not wish to have any more copycat scenarios and we must set clear lines of demarcation where they are vital to both electoral success and national interests.