We’ve said it before, but last night I was at a Tory Reform Group event where Nick Boles discussed the coalition, its prospects and its performance, and my conclusion is that, while the coalition is fine and working well at the moment, there are dangers ahead for both us and the Lib Dems.
I’m going to leave aside the Lib Dems for now, apart from to say that their presence in government as responsible partners is the thing that may rescue them in 2015.
But for the Tories, the discussion cemented my belief that stopping talking about why we had changed in 2008 went some way to explaining why we didn’t win outright last year (though I also underline that the task was immense), and that there are problems ahead if we do not start pushing it again.
I’m probably showing my age here, but remember this passage in Bridget Jones’ diary:
“If I voted Tory I’d be a social outcast. It would be like turning up at Cafe Rouge on a horse with a pack of beagles and Charles and Camilla in tow or having dinner parties on shiny tables with side plates… Labour stands for the principle of sharing, kindness, gays, single mothers and Nelson Mandela, as opposed to braying bossy men … going to the Ritz in Paris then telling all the presenters off on the Today programme.”
That’s what we’re up against. I’ve talked before about a group of friends, who are all classic target voters for the Tories, not one of whom will vote for us, ‘because we remember what you did in the 80s’.
There are two dangers for the Tories in today’s politics. The first we can’t do much about – we are being forced to do things that we don’t necessarily want to (though I would argue that part of being a Conservative is wanting to ensure that we have balanced budgets, a sustainable economy and that people control their own lives). But quite apart from that, as I’ve mentioned before, the perception that the Lib Dems are the only thing stopping us from slashing and burning is being allowed to take hold. It is simply untrue but there is a long-term problem – if we don’t stand up and take ownership of the many progressive and socially-good things the government is doing, we run the risk of allowing that ridiculous caricature to become even more entrenched.
There is always a difficulty in that governments tend to focus on the governing, and on the short-term; the party, on the other hand, can and should take up the challenge of how to ensure that in the long-term, voters can see that this has been a responsible, careful and caring government which they want to see re-elected.
Related posts:
RT @PlatformTen: New blogpost: Why we still need to remember Bridget Jones http://bit.ly/haKTgV #fb
I think this is a sound analysis but the political reality is that people will judge us by three things. Firstly whether the economy remains sound and growth begins to take off, secondly whether they see the benefits of the reforms in the NHS and schools which may be initially unpopular but like privatisation in the 1980s should become very popular when people see better outcomes and thirdly whether they view Ed Miliband as a credible alternative Prime Minister whereas at present he is a millstone. Although the Lib Dems do take credit for the softer Tory policies equally their poll rating is 10 per cent whereas the Tories are still around 36 and Nick Clegg is fast becoming a national hate figure. I think the modernising agenda is important but competence rather that cuddliness will be what we are judged by.
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Exactly – from @MatthewdAncona http://t.co/Agb5ABG / Good to see others listening to eg this http://t.co/hPRXjoC & http://t.co/y4jAp7Q